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Abstract Climate change reduces ocean oxygen levels, posing a serious threat to marine ecosystems and their benefits to society. State‐of‐the‐art Earth System Models (ESMs) project an intensification of global oxygen loss in the future, but poorly constrain its patterns and magnitude, with contradictory oxygen gain or loss projected in tropical oceans. We introduce an oxygen water mass framework—grouping waters with similar oxygen concentrations from lowest to highest levels—and separate oxygen changes into two components: thetransformationof oxygen in water masses by biological, chemical, or physical processes along their pathways in “ventilation‐space,” and theredistributionof these water masses in “geographic‐space.” The redistribution of water masses explains the large projection uncertainties in the tropics. ESMs with more realistic representations of water masses provide tighter constraints on future redistribution than less skilled ESMs, leading to over a third more of tropical area exhibiting consistent oxygen projections (58% vs. 22%), and a 30% reduction in model spread for tropical oxygen projections. These higher‐skilled ESMs also project weaker global deoxygenation than less skilled models (median of −2.9 vs. −4.2 Pmol per °C of surface warming) controlled by an increase in global water residence times, and they project a stronger increase in oxygen minimum zone ventilation by ocean mixing. These tighter constraints on future oxygen changes are critical to anticipate and mitigate impacts for ecosystems and inform management and conservation strategies of marine resources. 

Abstract. Phytoplankton blooms, especially diatom blooms, account for a large fraction of marine carbon fixation. Species succession and biogeochemical parameters change rapidly over a bloom, and determine the resulting biological productivity. This study implemented daily sampling of a 24 L microcosm bloom simulation experiment to assess changes in assemblage and biogeochemical processes while excluding changes due to advection. 15NO3- and H13CO3- tracer incubations were performed alongside pigment and DNA sampling to compare temporal trends in community composition and primary productivity (nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) transport rates). Rapid drawdown of nutrients and maximum C and N transport rates corresponded with peak chlorophyll a and fucoxanthin pigment concentrations. Fucoxanthin, typically associated with diatoms, was the dominant diagnostic pigment, with very low peridinin (dinoflagellate) and zeaxanthin (cyanobacteria) concentrations, indicating a diatom bloom. 18S rRNA gene analysis showed clear community succession throughout the duration of the bloom and multiple species of diatoms co-occurred, including during the bloom peak. The presence of metazoan 18S, high carbon-to-chlorophyll ratios, and a model analysis provide evidence of grazing in the latter half of the bloom. A traditional bloom framework suggests that species succession occurs as the bloom progresses and that phytoplankton diversity reaches a minimum of just one or two dominant species when phytoplankton productivity is at its maximum. However, this study produced a negatively monotonic productivity–diversity relationship (PDR) with relatively high minimum diversity values. This 18S-based analysis therefore presents a more complex relationship between bloom progression and phytoplankton diversity. 

Bubble-mediated gas exchange associated with wave breaking is a critical pathway for ocean–atmosphere exchange of low solubility gases such as oxygen. Yet, ocean and climate models, as well as observation-based products, usually rely on wind-only air–sea flux formulations derived from carbon constraints that ignore the asymmetric nature of the bubble flux, contributing to discrepancies between estimates of oxygen inventories and their response to climate change. Without bubbles, gas exchange is controlled by a symmetric wind-driven exchange, with the ocean–atmosphere gas partial pressure difference controlling whether outgassing or uptake occurs. Bubbles entrained by wave breaking can enhance this symmetric turbulent exchange, and contribute an additional asymmetric flux, always leading to an uptake, as they get squeezed by hydrostatic pressure (large bubbles) or collapse and fully dissolve (small bubbles). We present an observation-constrained theoretical framework of the air–sea flux accounting for air entrainment due to wave breaking and symmetric and asymmetric bubble exchange. The combined evidence from theory, laboratory, and field measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes, oxygen concentration, and noble gas supersaturation yields a universal formulation of gas exchange which we implement into a global ocean biogeochemical model. We discuss the resulting oxygen fluxes and demonstrate that our wind–wave–bubble formulation better reproduces observed in situ oxygen concentrations in water mass formation regions, where air–sea exchange is high, than a commonly used wind-only formulation. We show that the asymmetric bubble flux is essential for evaluating air–sea oxygen fluxes and estimating the magnitude of the ocean oxygen loss associated with global warming. 

Abstract The northern Indian Ocean is a hotspot of nitrous oxide (O) emission to the atmosphere. Yet, the direct link between production and emission of O in this region is still poorly constrained, in particular the relative contributions of denitrification, nitrification and ocean transport to the O efflux. Here, we implemented a mechanistically based O cycling module into a regional ocean model of the Indian Ocean to examine how the biological production and transport of O control the spatial variation of O emissions in the basin. The model captures the upper ocean physical and biogeochemical dynamics of the northern Indian Ocean, including vertical and horizontal O distribution observed in situ and regionally integrated O emissions of 286 152 Gg N (annual mean seasonal range) in the lower range of the observation‐based reconstruction (391 237 Gg N ). O emissions are primarily fueled by nitrification in or right below the surface mixed layer (57%, including 26% in the mixed layer and 31% right below), followed by denitrification in the oxygen minimum zones (30%) and O produced elsewhere and transported into the region (13%). Overall, 74% of the emitted O is produced in subsurface and transported to the surface in regions of coastal upwelling, winter convection or turbulent mixing. This spatial decoupling between O production and emissions underscores the need to consider not only changes in environmental factors critical to O production (oxygen, primary productivity etc.) but also shifts in ocean circulation that control emissions when evaluating future changes in global oceanic O emissions. 

Since 1980, atmospheric pollutants in South Asia and India have dramatically increased in response to industrialization and agricultural development, enhancing the atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic nitrogen in the northern Indian Ocean and potentially promoting primary productivity. Concurrently, ocean warming has increased stratification and limited the supply of nutrients supporting primary productivity. Here, we examine the biogeochemical consequences of increasing anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition and contrast them with the counteracting effect of warming, using a regional ocean biogeochemical model of the northern Indian Ocean forced with atmospheric nitrogen deposition derived from an Earth System Model. Our results suggest that the 60% recent increase in anthropogenic nitrogen deposition over the northern Indian Ocean provided external reactive nitrogen that only weakly enhanced primary production (+10 mg C.m^–2.d^–1.yr^–1in regions of intense deposition) and secondary production (+4 mg C.m^–2.d^–1.yr^–1). However, we find that locally this enhancement can significantly offset the declining trend in primary production over the last four decades in the central Arabian Sea and western Bay of Bengal, whose magnitude are up to -20 and -10 mg C.m^–2.d^–1.yr^–1respectively. 

Abstract. Zooplankton diel vertical migration (DVM) is critical to ocean ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycles, by supplying food and injecting carbon to the mesopelagic ocean (200–800 m). The deeper the zooplankton migrate, the longer the carbon is sequestered away from the atmosphere and the deeper the ecosystems they feed. Sparse observations show variations in migration depths over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. A major challenge, however, is to understand the biological and physical mechanisms controlling this variability, which is critical to assess impacts on ecosystem and carbon dynamics. Here, we introduce a migrating zooplankton model for medium and large zooplankton that explicitly resolves diel migration trajectories and biogeochemical fluxes. This model is integrated into the MOM6-COBALTv2 ocean physical-biogeochemical model, and applied in an idealized high-resolution (9.4 km) configuration of the North Atlantic. The model skillfully reproduces observed North Atlantic migrating zooplankton biomass and DVM patterns. Evaluation of the mechanisms controlling zooplankton migration depth reveals that chlorophyll shading reduces by 60 meters zooplankton migration depth in the subpolar gyre compared with the subtropical gyre, with pronounced seasonal variations linked to the spring bloom. Fine-scale spatial effects (<100 km) linked to eddy and frontal dynamics can either offset or reinforce the large-scale effect by up to 100 meters. This could imply that for phytoplankton-rich regions and filaments, which represent a major source of exportable carbon for migrating zooplankton, their high-chlorophyll content contributes to reducing zooplankton migration depth and carbon sequestration time. 

Abstract. The global ocean is losing oxygen with warming. Observations and Earth system model projections, however, suggest that this global ocean deoxygenation does not equate to a simple and systematic expansion of tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). Previous studies have focused on the Pacific Ocean; they showed that the outer OMZ deoxygenates and expands as oxygen supply by advective transport weakens, the OMZ core oxygenates and contracts due to a shift in the composition of the source waters supplied by slow mixing, and in between these two regimes oxygen is redistributed with little effect on OMZ volume. Here, we examine the OMZ response to warming in the Indian Ocean using an ensemble of Earth system model high-emissions scenario experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find a similar expansion–redistribution–contraction response but show that the unique ocean circulation pathways of the Indian Ocean lead to far more prominent OMZ contraction and redistribution regimes than in the Pacific Ocean. As a result, only the outermost volumes (oxygen>180 µmol kg−1) expand. The Indian Ocean experiences a broad oxygenation in the southwest driven by a reduction in waters supplied by the Indonesian Throughflow in favor of high-oxygen waters supplied from the southern Indian Ocean gyre. Models also project a strong localized deoxygenation in the northern Arabian Sea due to the rapid warming and shoaling of marginal sea outflows (Red Sea and Persian Gulf) and increases in local stratification with warming. We extend the existing conceptual framework used to explain the Pacific OMZ response to interpret the response in the Indian Ocean.